Cheltenham November Meeting Preview
Make sure to follow me on Twitter @RacingGalloway1 for all my final selections from all the races on the card!
Friday Betting Tip
13:10 – Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle 2m5f (Class 3)
Selection : Fathom Two
An extremely difficult start to the meeting with a competitive handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys. I have landed on the side of the Gavin Cromwell trained Fathom Two. The same yard landed this race with Sweet Will, and I hope they can land a repeat success this time around. I think he fits the perfect profile for this race, somewhere aged between 5-6 with an official rating higher than 115. Last time out in Downpatrick he was traveling fine in the race before making a mistake 2 out which killed all his momentum, he still got within 2 lengths off the winner and the hope is the bigger field and stronger pace will aid his chance rather than the steady pace and sprint away from the last like it was at Downpatrick.
13:45 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase 2m (Class 2)
Selection : Guy 8/1
This normally turns out to be a decent and informative race from this side of the English sea, and Guy from the Nigel Twiston Davies yard is the selection here. First off I couldn’t have Calico, favorites have a really poor record in this contest so you’d wanna be taking him on in this contest. Guy gets in here off a lovely racing weight and is a generous 8/1 with most bookmakers. Last time he was seen finishing 5th in a handicap over the same C&D during the October meeting, that race was off much better quality with Haddex Des Obeaux. Notlongtillmay and Dancing On My Own all rated in the low 150’s all running. He will have to reverse form with Triple Trade who is also entered but I think he can do that, but you’d have to rely a little bit on Guy improving from the experience over the Cheltenham fences last time out as his jumping wasn’t the most fluent.
14:40 – Arkle Trial 2m (Grade 2)
Selection : JPR One 2/1
This looks a fairly week Grade 2, but i think i’ve landed on the right one with Joe Tizzard’s charge JPR One. This stable has started to pick things up a little bit the past few weeks, with them landing the Haldon Gold Cup past friday and there horses seem to be having a much better time off things this season. JPR One jumped like an absolute buck on heavy ground at Newton Abbott on his chasing debut, in process beating two really solid horses in Monviel and Iceo. You’d like to think he can improve again from that first success, the forecast rain will also play really into his favor. All his best runs have come on soft or worse conditions so the more rain the better, his yard obviously think quite high of him having ran him in Constitution Hill’s supreme back in 2022. While Unexpected Party is a decent horse in his own right, only one horse older than 6 has won this in the past 10 renewal (Dunraven Storm, 2014) and he could head for the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday instead
Saturday Betting Tips
13:10 – Amateur Jockeys Handicap Chase 3m1f (Class 3)
Selection : Manofthepeople
Starting off Saturday with a play on the second race of the card, If declared i will be backing Fergal O’Brien’s horse Manofthepeople. Last seen 25 days ago finishing 2nd in a handicap chase at Exeter beaten a neck behind Any News, he did extremely well to finish as close as he did that day considering there were a few shoddy jumps along the way. He still remains a fairly unexposed chaser, that was just his 5th career start so the hope is he can improve that department off his game with more experience, because it’s clear the talent is there. He will have to defy a four pound rise for that performance, but i believe he can do it and is worth a few quid.
14:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2m4f (Premier Handicap)
Selection : Unexpected Party 7/1
One of the great betting heats/races of the season, always a fascinating puzzle to solve out, i have come down on Unexpected Party. He has a lovely profile for this contest, an 8 year old, with plenty of experience he still remains a novice as of now. Fits in with an official rating of 146 which is a good mark for the form he has shown, and i think most importantly has had a prep run (Every winner since 2016 has had a preparation before taking out this contest). Let’s talk more about that prep run back at Chepstow a few weeks back, he came out in a listed novice chase round Chepstow, beating Knappers Hill who has since been on to win a Grade 2 at Wincanton last weekend, albeit a very week Grade 2. His mark also looks favorable, boasting efforts behind the likes off Jonbon over 2m and Stage Star, who re-apposes in this race, but Unexpected Party is 9 pounds better off with him at the weights. Soft ground is no issue for him either. Small question marks can continue to be raised about the Skelton’s yard form, but there horses tend to really turn a corner around this time off year and they have a fair record at taking out these early season valuable handicap’s, this has been the aim i’d like to think for him all along. I think he has a brilliant chance.
14:55 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle 3m (Class 2)
Selection : Buddy One 9/2
Gonna be with the favorite in this contest, Buddy One is a wonderful horse for connections and think he has a good chance of taking out this race. A 9lb rise on paper does look harsh for this horse, but I just can’t see that stopping him, he was always in command back at Galway 21 days ago when comfortably landing a handicap hurdle at the venue. Has some smart form in the book before then as well, placed in a Grade 3 novice hurdle before going on too finish 2nd in the Martin Pipe at the festival and backed that up with another solid showing to again finish as the bridesmaid in a handicap hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting. I’d hope this extra few furlongs can bring out a slight bit more improvement from him too, that will see him over the edge, and land in the winners enclosure.
Sunday
13:10 – Maiden Hurdle 2m (Class 2)
Selection : The Kemble Brewery
Starting off with a bit of a weird one for Sunday in the opening Maiden Hurdle with The Kemble Brewery. There could be absolutely anything in this race which makes it wide open, however this horse is definitely one i’ll be keeping on side with this season and is one to follow and keep track off. Scored at this venue back at the open meeting in October when winning a valuable bumper, this is no doubt a tough ask on hurdling debut, he could easily have picked an easier opportunity, but i really like this horse and his positive attitude he showed that day. The 3rd from that race has probably let the form down since, but The Kemble Brewery is a fascinating runner pitched in at the deep end on Hurdling Debut.
14:20 Jewson Handicap Chase 3m3f (Premier Handicap)
Selection : Galia Des Liteaux 7/1
Seriously banking on the Skelton yard having a fine november meeting as I am hopeful that Galia Des Liteaux can take out the big handicap chase on Sunday. She absolutely loves the mud as showcased by landing the Grade 2 Hampton Novices chase on Heavy back in January this year, so the more rain the better. She was soundly beaten since at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals where the ground probably wasn’t deep enough for her. However it can normally take a classy, high rated sort to win this race and she is just that on her day, the first time tackling an trip over 3m’s as well i think she is going to relish every yard off it. If it rains hard then she has a serious chance. (Note she is also declared to run at Market Raesen so may not take part in this contest)
15:30 Unibet Greatwood Hurdle 2m (Premier Handicap)
Selection : Lookaway 8/1
A course and distance winner here 23 days ago, he landed the Grade 2 sharp novices hurdle. It was a remarkable sign of intent from the Neil King that they sent this horse here in the first place, with a mark off 122, he could have taken out any handicap hurdle of there choice. Or was this maybe part of the larger plan? So they could get him a decent rise in the weights so he can compete in a Greatwood? The handicapper raised him 10 pounds after that impressive victory, but he still gets in off a lovely racing weight here. Since that victory surely this has been the target all along, he’s a lovely price at 8/1 and I think he fits the perfect profile to win the Greatwood this year.
Hope everyone enjoyed reading my November meeting preview, while it has been hard work so far i have loved every minute writing up these blogs, and i hope you all can enjoy reading them as much as i have had making them.
Best of luck to everyone having a play this weekend, and remember to gamble responsibly!!
