The Arkle Novices’ Chase

What a clash we have on the horizon as two top novice chasers square off in search of Cheltenham Festival glory.

El Fabiolo represents Willie Mullins for team Ireland, while Jonbon represents Nicky Henderson for Team GB.

In this piece, I’ll analyze the race and break down each of the two contenders, as well as who I think will win and why. 

This year’s Arkle is a very solid renewal, with two high-class horses that would be clear favourites in any year and take all the beating. 

But to our delight, they must face against one other up the Cheltenham hill in The Clash at The Cotswold

Arkle Novices Chase’ – Jonbon

Made a foot-perfect start to his chase career when he danced around Warwick to beat the Paul Nicholls trained Monmiral in convincing fashion. Jonbon then moved on to Sandown where I believe he put in an Arkle winning performance, and here is why.

He went around Sandown on the front end and passed the ultimate test that a novice chasers can face with the Sandown back straight, completed with the infamous “Railway Fences”. 

He jumped them like a natural, and what was the most impressive was how he picked up after the last and put a every growing distance between him and Boothill.

Going on how strong he hit the line, there is a lot of confidence that there was a lot more left in the tank.

I’m going to give you a quick overview of how quickly Jonbon came up Sandown hill.

Times are compared to Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek, run over the same C/D on the same day.

(Times recorded from the first fence to the finishing line)

As you can see in the above graphic Jonbon sets off at a slightly faster pace than Edwardstone.

Passing the finishing line first time up, the leader in the Tingle Creek gains a nine-length lead by the third fence. The lead then widens to fourteen lengths at the twelfth fence, but this is where Jonbon’s performance really excels for me. 

As Aiden Coleman begins up the pace, Jonbon responds swiftly, making up four lengths between the third and second last fences. 

Jonbon then quickens all the way to the line, where he reduces a fourteen-length deficit to Edwardstone at the third last to three lengths at the line not fully extended.

This performance really struck me and made Jonbon the clear standout in the Arkle field in my book.

He subsequently returned to Warwick, where the performance did not appear to be as strong visually.

 This time putting in a workman-like performance against the Dan Skeleton trained Calico, but it was the only race run on the day that was faster than standard (1.89s faster), so it wasn’t as bad as it appeared. 

Harry Skeleton’s injection of speed after the first fence down the back straight was the moment this contest heated up.

While Jonbon appeared to be in distress, he answered every question Coleman posed to him, jumping magnificently over all the fences to the finish line. 

He did adjust right at some fences, but I believe it’s because he is such a smart horse finding a stride and never hitting one, and if you watch the race back he loses no momentum. 

Aiden Coleman never lifted the pro-cush in the home straight asking for maximum effort, instead asking him to lengthen with reminders on the shoulder to keep him focused on his work. 

Post-race comments from his trainer Nicky Henderson stated that he was not 100%, and this was duly shown in the performance in my opinion.

But good horses find ways to win when they are in trouble, which Jonbon truly accomplished. 

With just over four weeks since his run at Warwick, I have no doubt that Jonbon will progress significantly heading into Cheltenham.

Arkle Novices’ Chase – El Fabiolo

This season what appeared to be a strong team of novices for the Closesutton stable, El Fabiolo has come out on top in the 2m chase division, in so leading the Irish challenge. 

He made his chase debut at Fairyhouse, when he blew the race apart, beating Colonel Mustard by nineteen lengths in a canter. 

Even though all the fences were bypassed down the back straight leaving only nine to jump there were some errors to note in his jumping department as he made errors at the fourth, sixth, and a serious mistake at the second last.

That was something he’d have to concentrate on as the novice chase campaign progressed, as jumping a fence didn’t appear to come naturally to him. 

El Fabiolo’s next stop would be the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival, which I have analyzed as his best performance over a fence.   

(Times recorded from the start line to the finishing line)

As shown in the graphic above, I compared El Fabiolo’s win in the Irish Arkle to the handicap chase won by Final Orders on the same day over the same distance.

Final Orders may potentially line up in the Arkle, but to me, he would be completely out of his depth, as seen by the graphic above, which shows how far ahead in class El Fabiolo is from him.

El Fabiolo’s performance at the Dublin Race Festival was nothing short of spectacular.

Going a flat-out gallop from pillar to post set by Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo raced in second, a couple of lengths back. Following a gallop that never let up during the race, his jumping had improved and he appeared to have put his first-day mistakes behind him, that was until he got to the fourth last and made an incredibly bad mistake when Daryl Jacob asked for a big jump and he put down on him and banked the fence. 

He then stood off the next and came up out of Jacob’s hands, but was clever enough to sort himself out at the second last when jumping up alongside the leader and was sent for home after the bend. He jumped the last nicely and put ten lengths between himself and the field to win very impressively. 

This was a huge marker laid down, propelling El Fabiolo to the top of the Arkle market, but I do have concerns about him.

No doubt he has the engine and class to win the Arkle, but I believe his jumping will let him down. At Cheltenham, there will be thirteen obstacles to jump, two more than at Leopardstown, and over 2f shorter, I believe this will all work against him. 

He really doesn’t look the most natural over a fence at the moment, and if he makes an error as he made at the fourth last at Cheltenham, his hopes will be gone. 

The gallop they will go he will lose so many lengths, and I don’t think he can afford to give Jonbon lengths and still catch him.

Arkle Novices Chase – The Selection

Jonbon is my pick for the race because his jumping will be an advantage, and if El Fabiolo makes a mistake, I don’t believe he will be able to catch Jonbon. If it came down to a fight after the last, Jonbon would win because he is so honest and fights all the way to the line, as demonstrated at Aintree last season when the pair fought out the finish and Jonbon put his head in front.

I hope you enjoyed my piece and I look forward to writing many more.

Sean