The weekend’s big race bets : Naas, Warwick, Kempton and Punchestown.
Hi all and welcome back to this weekends big race bets column here on the Fanbase over at the Finishing Line podcast. We will preview and pick out a selection for some of the top races this weekend, Friday through to Sunday.
You can grab my Twitter handle @RacingGalloway1 for all my final selections and instant reactions and analysis, or my YouTube channel Where’s The Post Racing for a more relaxed conversational video, reviewing and previewing the weekends action. Without further a do let’s get stuck into the action.
Friday‘s Betting Tips
13:42 – Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle 2M4F (Grade One)
Selection : An Tobar 6/1
Firstly i just want to point out this is a sensational novice hurdle, and on the face of it looks an already deep and competitive renewal.
The one i want to side with at the prices however is An Tobar who looks a generous 6/1. Won on his debut back in early november beating a horse called Champagne Admiral by 4 and a quarter lengths. That horse has since come out and won at Leopardstown over Christmas, An Tobar then went on too contest the Royal Bond over 2m, and he just looked to be outpaced at the minimum trip before plugging on into 3rd. That form again looks to be fairly hot and much better than first anticipated, Farrren Glory looked like he’d hose up in the old Tolworth, and then King of Kingsfield won at Leopardstown as well on Boxing/St Stephen’s day. That combined with a step up in trip appears to be massively in An Tobar’s favor and I just think that the 6/1 on offer is a far more attractive price than some of the market principals.
I think Firefox is a very talented horse on his day, and he will definitely be tough to beat and he is obviously very good if he can beat Ballyburn like he did on the first day. I believe Ile Atlantique brings some good form into the race, hosing up by 19 lenghts on his latest run but he does have to reverse bumper form with Firefox who has already beaten him on one occasion, however he has most likely improved for a hurdle and can turn that around in my opinion.
Saturday‘s Betting Tips
14:24 – Hampton Novices Chase 3M (Grade Two)
Selection : Grey Dawning 9/4
Going to side with and trust the Skelton’s can have a good day at Warwick and that kicks off here with putting up Grey Dawning to win the Hampton Novices Chase. A horse that won the now debunked Leamington Novices hurdle at this track a year ago he looks a smart chaser in the making who will relish the potential testing conditions at this track come Saturday. Fingers crossed Harry Skelton can make a bit more use of him this time around than the last day, he absolutely belted 2 out but showed a brilliant attitude to rally up the Cheltenham hill and almost grabbed Paul Nicholls’ horse Ginny’s Destiny. Before that he’d slammed a good horse in Gailliard Du Mesnil and Apple Away who re-opposes here, yet somehow both are the same price?
Apple Away would have definitely improved for the step up in distance the last day but question marks might have to be raised over the form and what she beat and i think Grey Dawning confirms the form here.
I also absolutely adore Broadway Boy and it is very hard to oppose him considering how many favors he has done me this year already, but this may just be one run too many and he’d need to jump better than he did in his latest outing at Cheltenham, no doubt he has an incredibly admirable attitude but this place may not suit him and he looks out and out a Cheltenham horse for me.
15:00 – Classic Handicap Chase 3M5F (Premier Handicap)
Selection : Fontaine Collonges 9/1 E/W
The big handicap chase of the day is the Classic Chase staged at Warwick and it looks a very competitive contest on paper as is usually the case.
I’m going to put up Venetia Williams’ Fontaine Collonges here at 9/1 to land the spoils. The classic cliche bears once again here as Venetia’s love a run in the mud and this lad is no different. He won very nicely on Boxing Day over at Wetherby in soft conditions under Shane Quinlan, and i’d like to hope the prominent tactics are on full display here once again as in these staying handicap chase I think getting out prominently and getting into an early rhythm are key. Now off a career high mark of 140 i still think there’s more to come and Venetia has had a really good season so far so you can trust her horses to run there race, my only slight worry would be the trip and if he truly stays it but there’s nothing to suggest he doesn’t yet and 9/1 looks a tasty E/W bet.
The other one i’ll give a quick shoutout too is Broken Halo who’s currently up at 11/1. The last time out at Sandown in the London National he was in the rear, and was running on late before falling, now i think he might have been involved at the finish on that day but unfortunately we did not get too see his finishing effort. I’d be worried he might be off a slightly stiff mark hence why he isn’t the main selection but he could be another player at a bigger price.
15:35 – Veterans Handicap Chase Final 3M (Class 2)
Selection : Sam Brown 14/1
Great too see the final of the Veterans series re-routed here to Warwick as it’s a fantastic series to watch and spectate.
It’s a tricky enough race this year but I am going to put up Sam Brown here as a bit of an outsider bet. Now he comes into the race in horrific form and you can argue he might not be totally in love with the game anymore, but this horse on his old form just looks seriously well handicapped. Now down to a mark off 147 he was rated 159 in his pomp so if he turns his best foot forward he’d be in with a serious chance. He ran over an inadequate trip last time out over at Cheltenham and was just outpaced but finished well and came home in 5th, this longer trip is one hundred percent was he needs nowadays and hopefully we see a bit of a revival from him.
The main worries for me would be Thomas Darby and Cepage who both come into the race in good form and on the back of wins for the pair of them last time.
14:07 – Silvinaco Conti Chase 2m5f (Grade 2)
Selection : Pic D’orhy 5/2
I think this is absolutely crazy and cannot believe how underrated this horse is in the market here. This is a home game for this horse. A Grade Two 2 miles 5 furlongs on a flat track. This is right up his alley and he’s third favorite in this field, I simply cannot understand it. Sure he beat absolutely nothing the last day, but his only loss in the past 12 months is too Shishkin who was on one of his good days back in Ascot in February. Since then he has beaten Fakir D’oudairies at Aintree who is a good enough horse in his own right. This fella loves having an aggressive front running ride and he’s sure enough to get his own way up front again with only Banbridge to worry about in terms of challenging him for the pace. An absolutely stonking bet for me.
Edwardstone can definitely improve for this step in trip however he is a 10 year old now and the years may be starting to catch up too him now, i’m not convinced and I think Banbridge will need the run and is one to catch at the Spring Festivals, Notlongtillmay has to have question marks raised over the form, he’s not up too this standard for myself.
14:42 – Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle 2m5f (Class 2)
Selection : King Alexander 9/1 E/W
Over to Kempton’s big betting heat of the day and while Impose Toi looks the Nicky Henderson first string I am actually going to side with his other horse in the race King Alexander. Last seen winning at Exeter he won that race easily staying on nicely from the last, he is a progressive horse in the making, this is easily his toughest race to date and he has been hiked up 10 pounds for that victory but something tells me he could run well again from that mark, and i can’t help but think he’s being overlooked slightly in the market by his more fancied stablemate Impoise Toi who is the danger.
A horse who is a massive price that i’d give a chance too is the Skelton’s Jay Jay Reilly at 50/1 who is back over the smaller obstacles today. He really didn’t look in love with chasing the past few starts and jumped pretty abysmally at Cheltenham last time out so hopefully a return to hurdles can spark a revival here and he may run well for a place.
Sunday‘s Betting Tips
13:05 Skybet Novices Chase 2m3f (Grade 3)
Selection : Blood Destiny
Can’t imagine that IF Blood Destiny does turn up he’s gonna be a massively generous price but i’d like to think he has a good chance of taking out this Grade three contest on Sunday. A very talented Juvenile last season he effortlessly took in his chase debut just under a month ago beating a decent and more experienced rival in Heart Wood. His jumping was very good that day and if he can cope with this step in distance he’d take a lot of beating.
13:35 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle 2m (Grade 2)
Selection : Mystical Power
Hoping for a Willie Mullins double in the big races on Sunday. I think it’s no coincidence Mystical Power was re-routed from the Lawlor’s of Naas to here, it looks a very good opportunity for him to land a Graded prize. Well all know he is exceptionally well bred, and think he can outclass his rivals here in a weak enough race, he is a bright prospect but may need to settle better in time to be dining at the top table