Huge weekend of racing we have on our hands here, there’s a dozen races I have fancies in, but I have decided to narrow it down to just the big race in my opinion, The Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Cheltenham 14:20: Unexpected Party
I have gone through all the renewals of this race since the turn of the century and all trends point to one horse, Unexpected Party. The past 7 winners all had a prep run in the last 35 days. Only five horses in this race have had a prep run, Notlongtillmay, Angels Breath, Final Orders, Authorized Art and Unexpected Party who would have run exactly 35 days before Saturday.
15 of the previous 19 winners had run 9 or less times over fences, Unexpected Party has done so 7 times. 14 of the past 18 winners were rated between 139-149, Unexpected Party is rated 146, the previous 12 winners 11 of them had placed or won previously at Cheltenham over hurdles or fences, Unexpected Party did so in his first run of this year, the last 16 winners 13 of them has carried 11-0 or less, Unexpected Party carries 10st 12lb. Harry Skelton has the joint highest win percentage at Cheltenham out of any of the other jockeys. 7/1 1pt total each way Bet365
