Saturdays Horse Racing Betting Tips
Not a crazy weekend of betting for me, keeping the powder relatively dry as we have 3 days of the Cheltenham November meeting next week. Unpopular opinion but that meeting is better than the festival.
Aintree 14:45 Grand Sefton – Gesskille 10/3 (pending 9am friday inspection)
I looked and looked at this race as I hate backing favourites normally but I cannot see past this horse. 2nd in this race last year 8L clear of Percussion in 3rd and would have won if he had 10 more yards. 2nd in the Becher over these fences again. Clearly loves the national fences. Happy to put a line through the Topham run. Will absolutely love the heavy ground with multiple wins on heavy including his warm up run in September in France. Short enough price but he wins.
I think Fantastic Lady struggles with 12 stone in bottomless ground.
Born by the Sea’s best run was over 4 miles; this is far too short.
Percussion has twice chased Gesskille home in 3rd and despite a win on heavy at Fontwell I don’t think he wants it this soft.
Frero Banbou is best over 2 miles and did not stay in the Grand Annual.
Coopers Cross I am surprised has not been pulled already due to the ground.
Aintree 13:35 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle – Remastered 13/2
This horse is a proper solid stayer. Won this race last year and was a very close up 3rd in it the year before. Admittedly he is a much better chaser but you cannot ignore the 2 solid runs in this race. Form tailed off end of the season but he has had a wind op over the summer and hopefully takes this and progresses onto some big handicaps later in the season.
Icare Allen is interesting coming over for Willie but can’t win a handicap with a featherweight and a claimer on so I don’t see him bolting up off top weight.
Iwilldoit is a much better chaser and I am assuming is using this race as a spin with a big target like the Coral Trophy in mind maybe?
Wincanton 14:25 Badger Beers – The Big Breakaway 13/2
Feels criminal that I am not backing Frodon but sometimes you have to go with your head and not the heart. Losing bets don’t feed the kids. I love Frodon but I think age is against him this year and the ground. All his best performances have come on good ish ground and I don’t think the dig will be working in his favour.
So for my sins I am siding with The Big Breakaway which seems crazy as I write this. Proper stayer who does have a big win in him I am certain of it. His first 2 runs last season were class. Just edged into 2nd at Haydock on reappearance on the bob. 2nd in the Welsh National. If reproducing either of those runs he wins this I think but that is a major question mark.
Sam Brown looked the likely winner on his last run at Punchestown before falling 2 out with the lead. Those first time blinkers which worked wonders are missing today.
Ashtown Lad won’t want a fight and finds nothing off the bridle.
Threeunderthrufive is a boat that needs 10 miles. Could start running now and still would not win.
+ There are no comments
Add yours